On the front page of my website, I publish the current number of "Active" MLS listings in Orange as of that morning. Many graphs and news articles also include properties that are in "Backup", which indicates that they are under contract (in escrow) but will entertain backup offers in the event that the current escrow fails. That number will be higher as it incudes both Active and Backup listings. I think that showing only Active listings gives prospective buyers and sellers a more accurate view of the market. Is it a Buyer's Market, a Seller's Market, or somewhere in between?
As of this morning, there are 210 "Active" listings in Orange. But what does that mean? Is that good or bad? From a recent historic perspective, when the market was white hot in 2004 and 2005, for example, it was not uncommon for there to be only 75 to 85 properties that were "Active" in Orange on any given day -- clearly not enough inventory to satisfy the overwhelming demand at the time.
When the market crashed in 2008, the average number of "Active" listings in Orange shot up to over 825 properties! An increase of 860%! Over time, that number decreased to about 350-400 properties on any given day, which produced a fairly balanced market. A buyer could evaluate multiple properties, consider which worked best for them, make an offer, and receive a response (and maybe even some concessions) within a reasonable time. For sellers, they had to have their homes on the market longer, but could generally negotiate reasonable terms on their replacement property.
Over time, inventory slowly receded, until towards the end of 2012 the average number of Active listings had dipped below 100 properties again. There were expectations that the number of listings would gradually increase in the spring of 2013, as is common seasonally -- but that year it didn't happen, and prices increased in Orange approximately 27% -- lack of inventory, low interest rates, pent-up demand, and investor activity were all contributors.
Since that time, inventory has slowly crawled back up to approximately 200 properties (although it has been in the 170-180 range for the past few months).
So this morning's count of 210 properties indicates that we still do not have enough inventory to satisfy demand. Just a little perspective as you look at that number on the home page each morning.
As of this morning, there are 210 "Active" listings in Orange. But what does that mean? Is that good or bad? From a recent historic perspective, when the market was white hot in 2004 and 2005, for example, it was not uncommon for there to be only 75 to 85 properties that were "Active" in Orange on any given day -- clearly not enough inventory to satisfy the overwhelming demand at the time.
When the market crashed in 2008, the average number of "Active" listings in Orange shot up to over 825 properties! An increase of 860%! Over time, that number decreased to about 350-400 properties on any given day, which produced a fairly balanced market. A buyer could evaluate multiple properties, consider which worked best for them, make an offer, and receive a response (and maybe even some concessions) within a reasonable time. For sellers, they had to have their homes on the market longer, but could generally negotiate reasonable terms on their replacement property.
Over time, inventory slowly receded, until towards the end of 2012 the average number of Active listings had dipped below 100 properties again. There were expectations that the number of listings would gradually increase in the spring of 2013, as is common seasonally -- but that year it didn't happen, and prices increased in Orange approximately 27% -- lack of inventory, low interest rates, pent-up demand, and investor activity were all contributors.
Since that time, inventory has slowly crawled back up to approximately 200 properties (although it has been in the 170-180 range for the past few months).
So this morning's count of 210 properties indicates that we still do not have enough inventory to satisfy demand. Just a little perspective as you look at that number on the home page each morning.
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