On the front page of my website, I publish the current number of "Active" MLS listings in Orange as of that morning.  Many graphs and news articles also include properties that are in "Backup", which indicates that they are under contract (in escrow) but will entertain backup offers in the event that the current escrow fails.   That number will be higher as it incudes both Active and Backup listings.  I think that showing only Active listings gives prospective buyers and sellers a more accurate view of the market.  Is it a Buyer's Market, a Seller's Market, or somewhere in between?

As of this morning, there are 210 "Active" listings in Orange.  But what does that mean?  Is that good or bad?  From a recent historic perspective, when the market was white hot in 2004 and 2005, for example, it was not uncommon for there to be only 75 to 85 properties that were "Active" in Orange on any given day -- clearly not enough inventory to satisfy the overwhelming demand at the time.  

When the market crashed in 2008, the average number of "Active" listings in Orange shot up to over 825 properties!  An increase of 860%!  Over time, that number decreased to about 350-400 properties on any given day, which produced a fairly balanced market.  A buyer could evaluate multiple properties, consider which worked best for them, make an offer, and receive a response (and maybe even some concessions) within a reasonable time.  For sellers, they had to have their homes on the market longer, but could generally negotiate reasonable terms on their replacement property.

Over time, inventory slowly receded, until towards the end of 2012 the average number of Active listings had dipped below 100 properties again.  There were expectations that the number of listings would gradually increase in the spring of 2013, as is common seasonally -- but that year it didn't happen, and prices increased in Orange approximately 27% -- lack of inventory, low interest rates, pent-up demand, and investor activity were all contributors.

Since that time, inventory has slowly crawled back up to approximately 200 properties (although it has been in the 170-180 range for the past few months).

So this morning's count of 210 properties indicates that we still do not have enough inventory to satisfy demand.  Just a little perspective as you look at that number on the home page each morning.

I stand corrected on the City of Orange not putting the number of gallons per unit on the front of the bill -- I just received my latest bill and in the green margin (on the front of the bill) it clearly states 1 unit = 748 gallons.  My bad!

I also noticed that my water usage for the current billing period isn't quite as voracious as I thought, as it covers almost 2 months (57 days to be exact).  



So here's my stats:

• 37 units for the billing period
• 27,676 gallons total for the billing period
• 177,290 gallons annualized
• 486 gallons/day
  
• $1.52/day
  
• Approximately 1/3 of 1 cent per gallon (makes bottled water look pretty astronomical!)
  

At least I'm well shy of the 750,000 - 1M gallons/year that some of the elected officials noted in the recent OC Register article (click to view) are using.  As I've adjusted my sprinklers per the new State of California guidelines, it will be interesting to see the impact on my next billing cycle (dead lawn aside, ha ha!).  Let's hope the elected officials adjust their sprinklers as well!

While driving in the middle of a pounding rainstorm this afternoon, I pulled over to park and check my emails.  There just happened to be a message from the City of Orange indicating that there was now mandatory water cutbacks in effect.  The ironic part (other than the pouring rain outside of my window) was that the City had also sent another message, an hour prior, offering sandbags (and sand) should I have any flooding issues!


In any event, it appears that we'll all be forced to restrict watering our lawns from April-October to twice per week, no more than 10 minutes per station, and not during the day (between 9AM-5PM).  In the winter months, only once/week.  Also, no watering your lawn within 48 hours of a measureable rainfall -- which makes sense.  I have a friend who is very good about reminding people, via FaceBook, to turn their sprinklers off each time it rains -- I think it's a great idea (and now it's the law!).

If you don't have a sprinkler timer with a rain delay feature, I would highly recommend purchasing one.  A few years ago I replaced my timer with a much more user friendly model (click on photo attached to this article).  I liked it so much I purchased one for a rental property of mine as well -- easier for the tenants to "drive" and I would know how to use it too if they ever had questions!  It is much more intuitive than my old unit.  The current unit allows you to delay the sprinklers coming back on for up to 72 hours -- it will come in handy during our current drought season.  And if I notice that my neighbor's lawns are a lot greener than mine in the upcoming months, I'm going to be very suspicious, ha ha!

When listing and selling a house, it is the owner's responsibility to disclose any known defects in the property (although there are exclusions for some trusts and probate situations -- although best to disclose known situations nonetheless) to the prospective buyer of the property.  

I recommend to my clients that they carefully consider whether they would want to know about a potential disclosure item if they were purchasing the property.  If the answer is "yes" then it's a good candidate for disclosure.

Some situations are a "no-brainer" -- for example recent mold discovery and remediation should always be disclosed.  Known asbestos in the house?  Disclose! Inoperative appliances, faulty electrical, plumbing issues, roof leaks?  Disclose! Pets in the house? Disclose!  A death on the property within the past 3 years? Disclose!  Death of someone from AIDS in the house? Technically, one doesn't have to disclose this situation, but a good idea to disclose anyway (and if asked specifically by the buyer, definitely disclose!). A new freeway on-ramp being built next to the house within the next few years?  Disclose! Known sexual offender in the neighborhood (on Megan's List)? Disclose!  Added a room, installed a new water heater, furnace, roof, pool, plumbing, or electrical without proper building permits? Disclose!  Loud noises in the neighborhood (neighbors, trains, planes, motorcycles, freeway noise)?  Disclose!  Poor cell service in the house -- I would disclose.

But there are also gray areas -- the roof leaked 5 years ago, was professionally repaired by a licensed roofer and hasn't leaked since?  Likely not critical to disclose, but wouldn't hurt -- providing documentation that it was repaired goes a long way as well -- and shows that you have nothing to hide.   A roof leak that you repaired recently, but that may or may not have been thoroughly rain tested? Definitely disclose! Cracks in the slab under the flooring that you don't know about or have never seen? How would you know to disclose?  But if you saw the cracks in the floor when the flooring was being replaced, then disclose!

When a buyer closes and takes possession of a house, it is not uncommon for them to find things (mostly small) that were not disclosed by the seller and/or did not become known during a home inspection.  In many cases, the seller was not aware of the situation, and therefore did not have an obligation to disclose. However, if the buyer learns, from discussions with the neighbors for example, that a seller knew about a particular item, and did not disclose it, the buyer may have recourse against the seller.  So always better to over disclose than under disclose!

I had an opportunity to drive through the new "scramble" (or "Barnes Dance" intersection -- named after the inventor of the unique configuration) near Chapman University today, which was kind of interesting.  I think it will work out well if everyone plays by the rules:

• For cars, no turning on red
  
• For pedestrians, no entering the intersection when there's green lights for cars
  

What I hadn't absorbed prior to reading more about these intersections is that at any given time the intersection should be either "all cars" or "all pedestrians". I just assumed that there was some sort of complex traffic algorithm that allocated specific time slots for cars and pedestrians in various patterns -- nope.  Very simple:  All cars, or all pedestrians.  I think it will take awhile to get used to, especially for the pedestrians.

For example, today I was heading North on Glassell, and needed to turn West (left) on Palm.  When the light turned green, I eased into the intersection and waited for a break in oncoming traffic in order to turn left as I normally would.  In theory, I should no longer have to worry about pedestrians darting in front of me (in this case, crossing Palm from Bruxie towards the law school) but of course the pedestrians see the green light (for the cars) and figure they have the right of way and can race across, completely defeating the purpose.   I'm sure we'll all figure it out eventually.  In the meantime, be alert!

I was just reading an article in Money magazine aimed at recent college graduates with tips for them on saving and managing money. One of the items noted was to not be ashamed to live with Mom and Dad for awhile after graduation, as it's a great way to save money and to get on your feet as you start out in your new career and young adult life.

​It reminded me of a client of mine, whose two daughters (just a few years apart in age) both graduated from college and elected to live with their parents for a few years.  Both had good jobs in the financial industry, and between the two of them saved approximately $100K within 2-3 years. With that money, they purchased a very spacious, contemporary townhouse in an urban location (walking distance to restaurants/shopping/entertainment and great access to local freeways) which they share -- now their monthly living expenses are fixed, and far below what they would pay in the local rental market. What a great financial start for both of them, now in their mid-20s! 

Along those same lines, a friend of mine recently wrote a book on finance, also directed squarely at young adults (although applicable at all ages) and how they have the benefit of time on their side to make great investment decisions.  Disclosure: He didn't write the book to make $$ -- he's a self-made guy (software) that learned through trial/error how to successfully manage his own money. It is a quick, enjoyable (and easy to understand) read -- takes about 45 minutes -- and includes a couple of easy-to-use planning spreadsheets.  I would highly recommend for any young adults that you know that are just starting out in life -- from high school, college, trade school, or the military.  It is available from Amazon.com (click) in Kindle format for $2.99 (free Kindle reader software is available for just about every mobile device and PC) -- The title of the book is (click to see on Amazon.com): Look Forward: Plan, Save, and Reward Yourself -- Financial Planning is not Rocket Science by Larry Hennessey.

My sympathies are with the survivors of the recent Nepal earthquake -- very devastating and it seems like we haven't heard the worst of it yet.  But could we be next?

As we've all been told for many years, L.A. and Orange County is due for a massive quake at some point in the not-too-distant future, with all of the accompanying devastation and chaos. 

One of the things that struck me during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy was that the lack of electricity was a game-changer.  We've become so dependent upon electricity that it is more than just an inconvenience.  Which got me to thinking about the importance of having a generator during a natural disaster.  But it's a tough investment to swallow here in California, as it is something that we may never use if the "big one" doesn't hit in our lifetime.  On the other hand, if it does, then no generator can be too large or be too reliable!  Of course if one is an avid camper, RV'er, tailgater, or is a contractor, then a generator is second nature and you can get some additional utility out of it above and beyond disaster preparedness.

The other issue during a natural disaster is that fuel for both cars and generators is often in short supply (recall the long lines of people waiting for gas at the gas stations during Hurricane Sandy) -- if there's no electricity, then generally there isn't any electricity available to pump gas either.  Storing fuel in quantities large enough to feed a generator for a few days seems dangerous, not to mention that fuel goes stale after a few months and must be rotated, replacing soon-to-be-stale gas with fresh fuel -- a lot of work. 

If you can't/don't want to make the investment in a generator, a reasonable alternative is an AC-DC converter. Small models plug into the convenience outlet of your car, and larger models clamp directly onto the car battery.  A quick online search indicates you can pick up a 900 watt model for about $85 and a 2,300 watt model for about $250 (both were at Lowe's).  Either should give you enough juice to run a small refrigerator, a few light bulbs (the low-power consumption bulbs only use about 14 watts/bulb so are very efficient), charge your cellphone, and maybe run a small TV.  The bonus is your car already has an engine and battery, and usually has gas in it, so there's no additional maintenance or cost!

If you do elect to purchase a generator, after trying a few out, here are my recommendations:

• Purchase one light enough to move easily -- most 2,000 watt generators are 50 lbs or less.  Above that and they begin to get heavier.
  
• Consider an inverter-type generator -- they run quieter, use less fuel (very important when fuel is scarce) and won't fry your important electronics
  
• If you use gasoline in the generator, use a fuel stabilizer such as Stabil in both the fuel tank and any stored gasoline -- it will reduce water in the fuel and lengthen the life of the gas
  
• After each use, drain the gas tank and the carburetor to avoid gumming up the fuel system -- very important to insure that it starts when you need it most!
  
• Consider a propane conversion kit (or purchase a pre-converted model) -- they run cleaner, fuel is easier to store, and doesn't need to be rotated (20 lb BBQ type propane tanks) -- and no need to clean out the fuel tank/carburetor after each use.
  
• Share the cost with a neighbor -- a slightly larger model will allow both households to maintain some level of normalcy during a power outage
  
• Make sure that you have a few heavy duty, long extension cords to run from the generator to the house
  
• If you have a refrigerator that is too heavy to move to gain access to the power cord, you may want to consider having an electrician install a transfer switch, which allows the generator to back-feed into a few circuits in your house, while isolating them from the main panel (you don't want to shock any power company personnel who may be working on the lines)

Just some thoughts -- and make sure that you have a few days of food and water tucked away as well.

Warning: This gets a little "wonky"!

It's not uncommon for prospective buyers of homes in Old Towne Orange to make comments along the lines of:

- "Aren't there a lot of Historic Society rules that we would have to follow", or 

- "Because these houses are all on the National Register, do we have to get permission from the Historic Preservation Society to make any changes to the house?"

What they are likely referring to is the Old Towne Preservation Association (aka OTPA) which is an oversight organization that exists to insure that construction and rehabilitation projects in Old Towne Orange conform to local, State, and Federal standards that are already in place.  The misconception is that OTPA has enforcement capability or rules -- they do not.  

OTPA works with the City of Orange Planning and Building Departments, and the Design Review Committee (DRC) to determine if local projects follow the California Environmental Quality Act guidelines (aka CEQA - pronounced "SEE-QUH"), The Secretary of the Interior’s Standards for Treatment of Historic Properties with Guidelines for Preserving, Rehabilitating, Restoring, and Reconstructing Historic Buildings, and/or the Historic Preservation Design Standards for Old Towne Orange (which should incorporate the Secretary of the Interior's Standards). Click on any of the orange titles above to link to the respective document.

Note that in the list of guidelines/laws above (local, State, and Federal) there are no "Old Towne Preservation Association/OTPA Rules" -- it's because they don't exist!  Also note that while there are specific buildings and houses within Old Towne Orange that are independently listed on the National Register of Historic Places, the majority of pre-1940's homes/buildings in the district are simply referred to as "contributing structures" within the National Register Historic District (and are not on the National Register of Historic Places individually) -- a subtle distinction, but a distinction nonetheless.  It is also important to understand that contributing structures and independently listed structures are both subject to the same review process outlined above.

To summarize:

- There are no OTPA "Rules"
- Local Guidelines - Historic Preservation Design Standards for Old Towne Orange / Orange Municipal Code
- State Guidelines - California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA)
- Federal Guidelines - Secretary of the Interior's Standards

Considering buying or making changes to the exterior of your historic home? Check with the City of Orange, call the OTPA Hotline 714.639.6840, or email info@OTPA.org before you begin your project!

I received a mailer today from one of the larger solar installation companies.  While there is certainly an appeal to "free" energy, unfortunately the panels themselves can be fairly unsightly and not compatible with historic residential areas (such as we have here in Old Towne Orange).  If you are tempted to install solar panels, please consult with the City of Orange and acquaint yourself with the Historic Preservation Design Standards for Old Towne Orange (click to link directly to document) which clearly indicates what is and is not allowed -- it may save you the trouble/expense of having to move them and/or remove them entirely. 

While on the subject of inappropriate materials for historic homes, vinyl windows are another element that are not allowed by the Old Towne Orange design standards as noted above.  If you have inoperable wood windows or windows in need of restoration or repair, there are several local companies/craftsmen that can restore them without replacing them.  Well maintained wood windows will serve you home for another 100 years, help protect the value of your home (and that of your neighbors), and keep your home compliant with the local design standards.  Lack of adhesion to the design standards can result in fines and/or the City requiring replacement of the vinyl windows with windows that fit the period of the home with regard to both style and materials.

Now that we're officially in a drought, the subject of synthetic grass has also come up as a replacement for natural grass.  Again, synthetic materials, whether grass, windows, or fences, are not considered appropriate materials for historic neighborhoods (i.e. Old Towne Orange), but are allowed in other areas of Orange and Orange County. Drought tolerant landscaping would be a better option, but again it is best to check with the City to determine if your landscape plan fulfills the necessary requirements.

With the recent reduction in upfront mortgage insurance premiums for FHA loans from 1.75% to .85% of the loan amount, there has been a boom in refinancings, along with increased market activity for home purchases.  The result?  Many lenders are backed up and do not have the necessary manpower available to process/approve loans in a timely fashion.  This is especially true with government-backed loans -- FHA and VA - if you are using one of these loans to purchase a home, please give yourself extra time for the loan approval process.